By Will Rabbe

Renegade is moving into the White House. At least that's how Barack Obama will be known to the secret service -- by his code name. For President-elect Obama, who received criticism for being a "secret muslim," and a "secret socialist," (read: un-American) the literal meaning of the name renegade couldn't be more ironic. The word Renegade, as defined by the Oxford American Dictionary, means "a person who betrays an organization, country, or a set of principles" or "a person who abandons religion."

Maybe those in the secret service have a wry sense of humor but what has come to pass in this country is truly remarkable. In the final weeks of the election many on the far right came to distrust the polls. Some were relying on the idea of the "Bradley effect," or the notion that voters would lie to pollsters in favor of an African American candidate, but would cast their ballots for the other guy in private. The idea of the Bradley effect itself is a belief that America harbors a sort of latent racism, which could only become suddenly apparent after voters had gone to the polls. The idea was faulty.

The candidate who was supposedly handicapped by his race won a Democratic landslide. Not only did he break a racial barrier but he broke down a barrier that had increasingly impeded the modern Democratic party: slim margins of victory. In the last 50 years the three biggest landslides have all been Republican: Nixon in '72 and Reagan in '80 and '84. Since 1964, no Democrat has won with more than 300 electoral votes without the help of a third party candidate (Perot got 19% of the vote in 1992 and even 8% in 1996, helping Clinton win more electoral votes).

States that had not voted for a Democratic President since '64 also turned this time around: Virginia and Indiana. Obama won both the symbolic swing states of Ohio and Florida, the breadwinners of the electoral college. Western states like New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada all went blue -- and even North Carolina jumped the bandwagon, encroaching on the "solid south," the Republican stronghold.

But with Obama's historic election come huge expectations, expectations that even "the one" will find difficult to meet. How will Renegade fare?

By William Rabbe | Link | 3 Comments | Recommended (4)

Tags: Barack Hussein Obama Renegade Secret Service Margin of victory landslide

It was not just Americans but people all over the world who watched with rapt attention as Barack Hussein Obama became our president-elect. From his former elementary school in Jakarta, to his father's homeland of Kenya, to cynics across the globe who never thought the US, with our history of struggles for racial equality, would be capable of accepting a president with the middle name "Hussein," let alone an African American.

It would seem, for a brief time at least, that the election of Barack Obama has suspended much of the ill will that the Bush Administration engendered with their unilateral military actions and lack of diplomacy.

By Sarah Scully | Link | 4 Comments | Recommended (3)

By Sarah Scully
Today, life as we know it will change. After an elephantine gestation, America will give birth to a new leader. With so many historic firsts, the anticipation on the ground is that of an expectant parent multiplied by the nerves before the starting gun at an Olympic relay (and for some, added to that, the dread of a grad student who has 10 hours left to complete 20 hours of work on a final thesis).

Whatever your level of enthusiasm, do make sure you vote. Participation is the point of democracy, even if that participation is in the form of a protest. If you do not like the printed choice of candidates, write in the people you would like to see run the country. To fail to vote at all, is to not care about your own freedom.

By Sarah Scully | Link | 1 Comments | Recommended (4)

Tags: democracy, protest, vote

By Will Rabbe

After two years of non-stop campaigning, a remarkable field of candidates and a fierce battle in the home stretch, we're on the eve of election day. While Barack Obama leads in all the national polls and in most battleground polls, it isn't over until one of the candidates reaches the magic number of electoral votes: 270. Here's a summary of what to watch for as the results begin to come in:

Indiana: While it's a mid-west state, its polls close early so we should see the results report at 6PM (EST), before many of the eastern states. A traditional red state, Indiana has been extremely close and may be the first indicator of how election night will play out. While an Obama win will likely mean big victory nationwide, if Obama is blown out it may indicate a late McCain surge. Same rule applies for Missouri (but it doesn't report until 8). But since a narrow McCain win won't change the game either way, we should also be looking at the big electoral states of Ohio and Florida early on in the evening.

Ohio and Florida: Polls have shown a dead heat. McCain needs these states to remain competitive, since a win for Obama in either will likely guarantee victory for the Obama camp. If Obama loses narrowly, he will need to hold onto Pennsylvania and win Virginia. Florida reports at 7PM, Ohio at 7:30.

Pennsylvania: While Obama has led against McCain in this state since last April, the McCain campaign is putting down the chips -- Mark Salter and McCain's strategists see PA as the gateway to 270 and the Senator has kept his schedule full of events in the state. So, what do they know that we don't? Well, they tell us that their internal polling shows a closer race than many thought. In fact, Pennsylvania might be particularly difficult to poll, remember, Obama was only down 5 points before he was blown out by Clinton by a margin of 10.

If McCain is, in fact, competitive in PA, we may have a longer night than expected and Obama would have to make up the electoral loss by winning either Ohio or Florida, or 3 of the 3 western states of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada in addition to... Virginia, which is seen as an Obama stronghold.

Virginia: Obama has maintained a clear lead in this state for weeks, even above the margin of error in many polls. Once a solid Red state, it hasn't voted for a Democratic President since LBJ in 1964. In 2004 John Kerry pulled his campaign out in August, but this year Barack Obama never counted VA out and his efforts in the state have paid off -- most pundits have marked the state as a sure bet for Obama. Watch Obama run up the numbers in this new blue state. While McCain is unlikely to win, if McCain's turnout is larger than expected and Obama's margin is diminished, it may indicate a surprise turn in the electorate. If Obama loses PA, he will need this state and three of the western states to win. Virginia results will come in with Florida -- at 7PM.

Western Toss-Ups: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are Barack Obama's firewall. If he loses PA or VA in the east, the entire focus of the election will turn to these three states as he will have to make up the numbers.

Take a look at the electoral vote calculator to see the possible outcomes. Predictions?

By William Rabbe | Link | 0 Comments | Recommended (3)

Tags: election, electoral, electoral map, mccain, Obama, outcome, vote, voting day

By Sarah Scully
Mere hours remain for the campaigns to make their respective cases, and Barack Obama and John McCain have not wasted a minute between them. After finding out that his grandmother had succumbed to cancer this morning, Obama soldiered through his planned swing through swing states Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. A determined John McCain (who released a statement offering his condolences to Obama) set out on an ambitious seven state marathon through Florida, Tennessee (unclear why he is going here, it is a solid red state), Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finally Arizona. The running mates and Michelle Obama have embarked on their own slate of stops through crucial areas. The madness will continue all day tomorrow with the candidates finally ending up in their home states to watch the results.

Expect epic lines at the polls, non stop phone calls and the site of thousands of out of work, hung over campaign workers on Wednesday morning.

Check back as Will and I will be reporting from each campaign's election night headquarters...

By Sarah Scully | Link | 0 Comments | Recommended (2)

Tags: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, McCain, Nevada, New Mexico, Obama, swing states, Tennessee, Vote