Crystal Ball Breaker

Thursday, October 30, 2008 | 2:52 PM

By Sarah Scully
Wise Words From Karl Rove; Wiser Words From Jonathan Martin...
As is often the case in the final days before an election, eager beavers and nervous Nellies start crafting narratives for how the race will be won (in either a monstrous landslide or a stunning comeback) based on the only thing they have to ease their anxieties: polling data. As former Bush strategist extraordinaire Karl Rove cautions in a WSJ commentary: many polls were wrong in 2000 and 2004. Pollsters may have improved their methods in recent years, and we now have statistician Nate Silver to assess their reliability; however, voters have defied expectations before and there is always the outside chance they could again. All that said, Politico's blogger extraordinaire, Jonathan Martin offers the most sensible take on the matter, explaining the usefulness of putting stock in reliable polling of individual states that are key to winning the electoral college. Forecast whatever outcome you want to comfort yourself but we won't know until we know and that is the beauty of democracy: the people decide... so make sure you vote!