October 2008
Crystal Ball Breaker
Thursday, October 30, 2008 | 2:52 PM
By Sarah Scully
Wise Words From Karl Rove; Wiser Words From Jonathan Martin...
As is often the case in the final days before an election, eager beavers and nervous Nellies start crafting narratives for how the race will be won (in either a monstrous landslide or a stunning comeback) based on the only thing they have to ease their anxieties: polling data. As former Bush strategist extraordinaire Karl Rove cautions in a WSJ commentary: many polls were wrong in 2000 and 2004. Pollsters may have improved their methods in recent years, and we now have statistician Nate Silver to assess their reliability; however, voters have defied expectations before and there is always the outside chance they could again. All that said, Politico's blogger extraordinaire, Jonathan Martin offers the most sensible take on the matter, explaining the usefulness of putting stock in reliable polling of individual states that are key to winning the electoral college. Forecast whatever outcome you want to comfort yourself but we won't know until we know and that is the beauty of democracy: the people decide... so make sure you vote!
The InfObamercial
Wednesday, October 29, 2008 | 7:45 PM
In case you missed it, Barack Obama took over several major networks tonight for a 30-minute spot (that at times looked more like a hybrid of a Ken Burns film and The West Wing than a campaign ad). Reviews are mixed as some were impressed, others were annoyed to have their regularly scheduled programming interrupted and a few people even found the the whole concept offensive.
Here is Obama's 30-minute spot:
Here is McCain's 30-second response:
Let us know what you think...
New Mexico: Snapshot of a Swing State
Monday, October 27, 2008 | 12:31 PM
By Sarah Scully
Albuquerque, NM
John McCain and Barack Obama both spent their Saturday in New Mexico. The state that went blue in 2000 and red in 2004 has become one of the key battlegrounds in the final days before the election. With the Obama campaign encroaching on old Bush territories, including Nevada, Colorado and most notably, Virginia, they now have several potential routes for winning the magic number of 270 electoral votes. McCain has fewer options at this point, as states once considered safe for the GOP are slipping away. The McCain campaign, much like Hillary Clinton's, seems to have underestimated Obama's offensive ground game and is now scrambling to make up for it.
Amid rumors that his resources have become increasingly stretched, McCain showed up in New Mexico with a mission to reconnect with Latino voters and make clear that he had not given up on the state. McCain's morning rally in Albuquerque turned out about 1,500 supporters, which would have been impressive, had there not been an Obama rally later that night that attracted an estimated 45,000 people. As McCain moved southward, speaking to his credentials as a fellow westerner and mocking Obama for his presumptuousness; hordes of Obama volunteers canvassed the state getting early voters to the polls before gathering at the University of New Mexico to line up for a chance to see their candidate.
Everyone we encountered in that line had voted early, some waiting two hours to do so. Many had spent the afternoon going door to door. While McCain seldom mentioned early voting at his events, both Obama and Governor Bill Richardson (who introduced him) implored the audience to get to the polls as soon as possible, championing their power to swing the election.
Though Obama looked a little worn out as he took to the stage, he spoke energetically, even aggressively at times, such as when he suggested McCain was the Robin to Bush's Batman. The audience frequently erupted into deafening chants and blue and white signs could be seen waving in the air for miles.
His message has been so successfully telegraphed throughout the election that it almost wouldn't have mattered if he had simply stood there reading the Albuquerque phone book. Most attendees were too far back to hear what he was saying anyway.
The GOP continues to attack Obama for the grandiosity of his events and it is worth noting that crowds do not always translate into votes but it is hard to argue that the enthusiasm generated from his rallies is a key ingredient in his success. Still, McCain has an uncanny ability to come from behind and almost requires it in order to build velocity. While this worked for him in the primaries, he may not have enough of a runway left in the general election.
New Photos From The Trail
Thursday, October 23, 2008 | 4:41 PM
The latest from the trail...
Getting some wisdom from Dan Balz
Getting some wisdom from Jill Zuckman
Getting some wisdom from Jonathan Martin
Axelrod doing what he does best
McCain Camp Top Gun, Rick Davis
Governor Granholm
Proof of McCain' s youth support
Chris Wallace being a good sport
Howard Dean weighing in
Chris Dodd weighing in
Spin Room awaiting Spinners
This is what a press filing room looks like
Behind the scenes of Fox News
Triumph and Mr. Met making mischief behind the scenes of Fox News
All photos © Charlotte Rabbe
FUN with the Electoral Map
Monday, October 20, 2008 | 5:09 PM
Take a look at the state of the race and test potential outcomes on the LA Times electoral map calculator (click create your own scenario):
Hmm.... not much calculating to do with these polls, considering they've already got Obama up by 48 electoral votes.
Boxers, briefs, diapers, or nothing at all...
Monday, October 20, 2008 | 3:53 PM
John Kerry with a sense of humor, albeit somewhat risque!
Home Stretch Survival Guide
Monday, October 20, 2008 | 1:33 PM
By Will Rabbe
Since the news is moving faster than ever in the home stretch and yes, sometimes it's hard to pay attention to everything -- here are a few stories of note:
First he's an "elite," now he's a socialist. The McCain camp has been hammering away at Obama's tax policy, likening it to socialism. What would Karl Marx say? Here's a take from a real commie. Close enough...
Obama raises a shit-ton of cash this month, almost three times his previous record. Small donations are the name of the game. Some republicans claim he's accepted foreign money... maybe from the Soviets?
The final debate -- varying takes, here and here.
Obama fights back on the ACORN accusations -- he wants to find out if the McCain campaign has been coordinating with the present administration. Or... what is this whole ACORN thing?
Colin Powell takes heat from Rush for endorsing Barack Obama. Because black people only endorse black candidates?
Despite not being a licensed plumber, or not being able to buy his bussiness or making far less than 250K a year, Joe the Plumber is still making a difference. More on "Joe the Plumber," American Idol.
We're down to the wire and "swing states" will make all the difference. Keep up on all the most recent polls...
What motivates voters to choose one candidate over another? "Most people seem able to provide cogent- sounding reasons for voting the way they do. However, careful observation suggests that these 'reasons' often are merely rationalizations constructed from readily available campaign rhetoric to justify preferences formed on other grounds."
Aside from the polls and predictions -- it's worthwhile to take a fresh look at our electoral system -- does it work? Maybe not?
"My greatest strength is my humility. My greatest weakness? It's possible that I am a little too awesome." -Barack Obama
Friday, October 17, 2008 | 10:37 AM
"It's true that this morning I've dismissed my entire team of advisers. All their positions will be held by a man named Joe the Plumber." -John McCain
Last night Barack Obama and John McCain put down the boxing gloves and put on white ties and tails for the annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner, a bipartisan charity event named after the legendary New York Governor and first Catholic presidential nominee. The evening marked a 63 year-old tradition of politicians joining together to make light of their differences and raise money for underprivileged children. It's a particularly nice break in an election year as candidates take the night off from battling to self-deprecate and make nice with each other. I highly recommend watching the video...
Drinking Games are all the rage
Thursday, October 16, 2008 | 10:36 AM
Hilarious video from our friend Dana Milbank:
Debate Drinking Games End In Sobriety
Thursday, October 16, 2008 | 1:00 AM
The final debate of this election cycle was also the most interesting. Whereas previous debates seemed more like over-hyped Broadway productions, this debate felt like a boxing match between two heavy weights. The repeated catch phrases and "message statements" were much less frequent and in their place, a gamesmanship with new strategies and, at times, a surprising pugnacity. Having broken into a double digit lead in many polls over the last 48 hours, Obama came in with the title to lose. McCain was tasked with opening up as many cuts as possible.
McCain made the first move, tapping into the "anger" of the American people with an aggressive start (which doesn't help cast off the notion that he's intemperate and running too negative a campaign).
He landed some direct blows on his opponent yet Obama bounced right back up, elegantly moved past it and jabbed back lightly but steadily with a calm ease that grew more confident with every passing question. McCain hit hard on Ayers and ACORN and championed the middle class in a way that he should have been all along but he was still unable to get control of the ring and even had trouble breaking in over Obama's voice. McCain not only failed to open up any cuts, he also stumbled, incorrectly identifying Sarah Palin's child with Down sydrome as autistic. His big move of bringing a third party into the ring, Joe the Plumber, was done ham-handedly. He overdid holding Joe up as a tragic victim of liberal policies, someone who could build a business and create jobs if not for Obama's tax increases. This left a perfect opening for Obama to come back at him with the populist reminder that plumbers make a good bit more money than the average voter, as does McCain. (Joe is certainly going to get his 15 minutes as I hear he will be on every major morning news show tomorrow).
As the debate progressed, Obama danced around McCain with levity between jabs and wore him out like a an Olympic pugilist. McCain blew all his energy in the first round. A controlled tactician versus brute force .
The focus groups have just come in and if it wasn't obvious from watching, Obama has held onto his title and maybe even come closer to the bigger prize.
Politico Panel Discussion With Rosario Dawson
Wednesday, October 15, 2008 | 8:56 AM
By Sarah Scully
Tuesday morning in New York, MTV assembled a diverse panel ranging from Hollywood to DC to discuss the impact of young voters on the election with an audience of college students from NYU, Pace and Hofstra. The end result was a refreshing examination of the myths surrounding demographic voting blocks and a frank conversation about concerns that are not often addressed in the media. Politico's Chief Political Correspondent, Mike Allen, moderated the discussion that started off with a rather dry analysis of data on young voters from HuffPo's Hillary Rosen but quickly picked up speed as the issues of education and race came into play. Rosario Dawson, in particular, brought the conversation to a more personal level with stories about her own experiences and concerns as a Latina voter. She spoke to why the Hispanic community votes on issues rather than party lines and provided a genuinely concerned ear for questions from the audience. Dawson proves that a movie star can speak as well as any Washington pundit on political issues and her work with Vote Latino is one of the best examples of civic activism in this election cycle. The Daily Show's Larry Wilmore, as expected, brought the levity, stating: 'It's not that republicans are racist, they're just not brother friendly," but he also offered some serious advice to Republicans about speaking to social and religious issues to better reach middle class black voters. Tim Russert scion Luke relayed stories from the field of encounters with both idealistic and skeptical college students, grinning and enthusiastically nodding just like his late father. "Juno" writer Diablo Cody added a few witty gems to the conversation, conveying her shock that her cheeky film about the alienation of teen pregnancy was heralded by some as a testament to conservative values. "If I had known I wielded that kind of power, I would have written a movie called 'Don't Vote for John McCain.'" Lone conservative, Alex Vogel held his own with facts and figures to counter the notion that young and minority voters are an overwhelming Democratic force. The occasional partisan jab aside, the panelists, each in their own way, propelled the argument that citizens are moving away from partisan identity and embracing the independent view, which makes for a greater challenge for pollsters and campaign strategists but perhaps also a more honest democratic process.
Debate Drinking Game PART 2 with suggested buzzphrases...
Monday, October 13, 2008 | 12:32 PM
This time around we've included a blank debate drinking game scorecard so that you can fill in your own buzz-phrases:
Suggested buzzwords and buzzphrases:
"Middle Class"
"Out of touch"
"My friends..."
"Financial Crisis"
"Wall Street" OR "Main Street"
"Reform" OR "Change" OR "Accountability"
"Raise taxes" OR "Cut taxes"
"Fundamental difference..."
"Pork" OR "Earmarks"
"Charles Keating" OR "Bill Ayres"
Youtube Tricks
Thursday, October 9, 2008 | 12:04 PM
By William Rabbe
John McCain's new ad criticizes Barack Obama's association with former domestic terrorist William Ayres and a campaign press release this morning distributed the Youtube link. There's only one problem: the video has somehow been flagged as inappropriate by the "Youtube Community" and requires all viewers to verify that they are over the age of 18.
Anyway, here's the video:
Is Ayres a true concern to voters in light of the recent economic downturn?
Obama LOVES this trading market...
Wednesday, October 8, 2008 | 12:51 PM
While the stock market is infuriating most Americans right now, there IS a market that Obama can be happy about.
Really? Youbetcha!
The Intrade bid for Obama following last nights debate is higher than ever -- at 74 points today.
Yes, that means that people investing in the outcome of this election are betting that Obama wins... a 74% chance.
To Shake or Not To Shake...
Wednesday, October 8, 2008 | 12:12 PM
By William Rabbe
While last night's debate lacked most of my partisan buzzwords and phrases, the impression was created (for right or wrong) that McCain's disdain for Obama was so great that he could not even extend the most common of courtesies to his opponent: McCain didn't shake Obama's hand.
Wolf Blitzer of CNN made much (probably too much) of the tensions between the candidates, even going as far as to repetitively question whether or not they would shake hands. In fact, his very first comment at the close of the event was, "All right. We're going to see if senators Obama and McCain actually shake hands," [emphasis added] and then he provided live commentary on the candidate's interactions as they did engage each other:
Acknowledging the pettiness of debating whether McCain intentionally refused to shake his opponent's hand or not, maybe we should take a step back -- conservative columnist Byron York of the National Review is probably right when he says dismisses the speculation, saying that : "...McCain and Obama had already shaken hands and briefly embraced immediately after the debate ended -- in fact, they were standing so close to each other that Brokaw had to ask them to separate so that he could see the TelePrompter. Whatever it was, it wasn't a snub."
So, was McCain being petty, or is the media speculation petty?
Trace's Drinking Game
Tuesday, October 7, 2008 | 5:25 PM
Tonight's debate is a good excuses to get obliterated.
The Gift of Low Expectations
Thursday, October 2, 2008 | 3:31 PM
By Sarah Scully
What if the Biden-Palin debate showdown is not the "thrilla" the Washington Post is expecting? The Vice Presidential debate is arguably more anticipated than all of the McCain Obama debates combined but not because people hope to see a thought provoking, in depth interaction on policy. No, the reason most people are looking forward to this debate is pure schadenfreude. Sure, a few are hoping that the candidates will make up for their respective goofs over the last few weeks and surprise everyone by elevating the political discourse but most are eagerly anticipating seeing either Sarah Palin draw a blank at the most basic of questions or Joe Biden sticking his foot in his mouth with some inadvertently offensive comment. Both candidates have stumbled over the past few weeks with Biden rewriting history, referring to FDR getting on the television in 1929 and Palin unable to answer fairly basic questions in an interview with Katie Couric. The campaigns have spent a great deal of time and effort preparing these two for this night so it is possible that Sarah Palin will have intelligent answers, delivered with confident charm and it is also possible that Joe Biden will show a restraint in his verbosity and refer to his opponent with deference. They may not be able to completely conceal their weaknesses but odds are these two will be much more controlled and thoughtful in their responses than we are used to seeing. For those salivating at the chance to watch Palin fall, most likely she has learned from her Couric interview and will either have sharp answers or deflect any difficult questions with a campaign message statement or a crowd-pleasing, snarky jab at Biden's expense. Even if both or one of them makes a mistake, the expectations have been set so low (it's difficult to find an article about the debate without the word "gaffe" in it) that all these VP candidates have to do, Palin, in particular, is not completely flub it to come out of it with high marks.
Ongoing Coversations
- Are Reactions to Palin Pick Betraying Chauvinism? 0 comments
- Is Palin a Good Pick? 8 comments
- Is Biden a Good Pick? 0 comments
- Should Obama Accept McCain's Proposal for a Series of Joint Town Halls? 6 comments
- Who Won The Debate? 2 comments
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