By William Rabbe

OMG! The new John McCain ad features Barack Obama amongst celebrities Britney Spears and Paris Hilton!

That's hot.

But by tapping into popular resentment of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, is McCain's camp grabbing at straws or could this approach be effective (albeit still slightly ridiculous)?

Probably both. As the underdog, John McCain can afford some flexibility in shifting tactics -- he's trying nearly every approach to find out what works and what doesn't before the critical post-convention stretch. In this case, he's making a play for free publicity by cooking up a controversial ad that will be much talked about by the pundits. Obvi!

But also, he may be fortifying the doubts amongst some Americans that Barack Obama is less an effective leader as much as a rock-star-esque self-promoter. Or a celebutante.

But wait! Isn't this coming from the same candidate who gladly touted his endorsement from The Hill's star, Heidi Montag?

Perhaps the latest evidence that McCain's tactical shift is working, the new GALLUP poll shows a remarkable comeback for the Arizona Senator.

By William Rabbe

Over the last three weeks or so, candidate McCain has been making the point that Barack Obama would, "rather lose a war than a political campaign." The statement was criticized by TIME columnist Joe Klein, who said: "I can't remember a more scurrilous statement by a major party candidate. It smacks of desperation." Nevertheless, McCain believes this point might be working, as he has continued making it...

But I expect that this is just the beginning. Political strategy is all about making the debate about your opponent, and this week many have noted that McCain is focusing on Obama's character and fitness for the office of the Presidency...

The latest? McCain's new TV ad:

Expect more to come.

By William Rabbe

Thank goodness we have the The National Enquirer to keep our former public officials in check.

The rumor mill had been churning with this story for quite some time, but the National Enquirer has come out with their most definitive "expose" on John Edwards, his mistress and his "love child."

After having grossly invaded the former candidate's privacy, the Enquirer's "investigator" claims John Edwards secretly visited his mistress Rielle Hunter at a hotel. She was allegedly with their child, and Edwards stayed for several hours.

You may not have heard about this because it hasn't been widely reported. So, many are wondering: why does John Edwards get a pass when Sen. Larry Craig was publicly flogged for his sex scandal? The hypocrisy! Not fair! [Exclamatory sarcasm à la Tom Wolfe].

But really, why?

Probably because no legitimate journalist wants to dignify the Enquirer's attempt at "journalism" with a follow up story. Whereas Craig's scandal was revealed because he had actually been arrested for a crime and was a sitting Senator at the time, this became public as a result of a paparazzi-like "investigation" that was much less about revealing hypocrisy in Government than it was to make a sensation.

I mean, just look at their headline: "SEN. JOHN EDWARDS CAUGHT WITH MISTRESS AND LOVE CHILD!" [emphasis added] Oooo! Caught!

Embarrassingly, they even chased him into a restroom:

Shocked to see a reporter, and without saying anything, Edwards ran up the stairs leading from the hotel basement to the lobby. But, spotting a photographer, he doubled back into the basement. As he emerged from the stairwell, reporter [name deleted so as not to afford this "investigator" undue PR] questioned him about his hookup with Rielle. Edwards did not answer and then ran into a nearby restroom. He stayed inside for about 15 minutes, refusing to answer questions from the NATIONAL ENQUIRER about what he was doing in the hotel. A group of hotel security men eventually escorted him from the men's room, while preventing the NATIONAL ENQUIRER reporters from following him out of the hotel.

You can imagine it was a rather humiliating ordeal. While I am not defending John Edwards' behavior (if true) those from the Enquirer who were in hot pursuit of confronting Edwards at 2 AM should feel equally humiliated for the great legnths they have gone for such a frivolous story.

Maybe we should examine the literal meaning of the word paparazzi -- "buzzing insects." Please go back to chasing Britney Spears...

Our election special "America's Next Top Candidate" got a nice shout out today from one of our all time favorite people, Jonathan Martin of Politico.

Great News Obama Youth Nation...
There is now a special place for you to make friends, load up on cool looking t-shirts and, most importantly, learn how not to alienate undecided voters with your fervent Obamania.

A smart idea, given how the big-hearted but less organized Kerry volunteers were bested in Ohio by a highly trained GOP "Get Out The Vote" effort, as we saw in the great documentary "...So Goes the Nation"

By Sarah Scully
Much like the middle Brady Bunch daughter, John McCain can't seem to get any attention. Everyone is too busy noticing the many accomplishments of Barack Obama, who has taken on the role of Marsha Brady, the cheerleading, straight A, class president who sucks all the oxygen out of the room without even trying, leaving poor sister Jan ( a role previously played by Hillary Clinton) to lament: "Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" Perhaps the McCain campaign hoped that they would get a shot at center stage with Marsha out of town but the media is as fixated as ever on the senator from Chicago, who has been virtually inaugurated with a trip that is being covered like an official presidential tour. McCain's got a plan for Iraq, new thoughts on the economy, he even makes a funny joke once in a while but all anyone can talk about is Barack, Barack, Barack!
The issue reached its nadir today when the New York Times rejected an op-ed McCain wrote in response to one the paper published by Obama last week (Reuters). The Times refuted the story, stating that they merely sent back the article for a rewrite but McCain's camp is crying foul.
He may feel like chopped liver now but there are a couple of reasons for John McCain to buck up: Being an underdog suits him. McCain was never as appealingly scrappy as when he made a running leap from the back of the polls to win the New Hampshire primary and blow past all the other, better funded candidates in the contests that followed. Obama may be the star of the show but that means very little time to rest and prepare for the fall. McCain has time to nap, as he told Conan O'Brien. Another bright spot to focus on is the recent news that McCain is more popular than Obama in Israel (Politico). Something also worth considering: Constant attention eventually leads to more scrutiny so presumably, Obama will get caught in another gaffe (though he seems to have sailed through previous ones remarkably unscathed) or, more likely, start seeing a backlash from the media, who may start to chafe at the lack of reciprocated attention. Even Marsha Brady has her bad days.

By Sarah Scully

With Obama embarking on a global field trip and John McCain scrapping for some/any media attention, the weekend homework is sizable...
READ
-The actual article inside the controversial New Yorker about the starting point of Obama's political career, which is long enough to be a short book and as insightful about the power structure in Chicago as it is about the candidate.
-Pointing to a potentially nasty surprise for the Obama campaign as they venture into worlds where their candidate may not have the "rock star" popularity he enjoys elsewhere, Politico has a great piece explaining why McCain is favored in Israel.
-Peruse the foreign press reaction to Obama's trip abroad for a different approach than you are used to reading. Der Spiegel has an interesting interview with Nouri al-Maliki about his thoughts on withdrawal plans.

OBSERVE
-Pay close attention to the blossoming McCain Romney friendship as it might be an indicator in the VP selection. While it could be a red herring, the former rivals do seem to be spending more time together.
-Watch as McCain ramps up attacks on Obama with new negative ad.

PONDER
-Send us your thoughts on Al Gore's non-partisan Green Challenge.

By Jim Shearer, Sarah Scully and Will Rabbe

The criteria for being a successful politician is pretty much the opposite of that for a musician: keeping your hair and dress neat, your nose clean, not saying controversial things, having no rhythm and perhaps most importantly, no visible groupies. As a result, the rare occasions when these two worlds intersect make for some highly entertaining moments...

1. Tricky Dick and The King (1970)
Elvis Presley meets with Richard Nixon in the White House. Elvis suggested that he be made a "Federal Agent-at-Large" in the Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs and gave Nixon a Colt 45 pistol as a token of his admiration.

2. Folk You I Won't Do What You Tell Me (1960's)
Folk Music becomes a popular venue for political protest for Civil Rights and against the Vietnam War, most notably John Lennon's "Give Peace a Chance"

3. Willy Gets A View of D.C. From High Up (1980)
Willy Nelson smoked marijuana on roof of White House during a visit with Jimmy Carter.

By Sarah Scully

In a commentary on how off-base some of the attacks on Barack Obama have been, the New Yorker put out a cover illustrating nearly every slanderous charge that has been leveled against the candidate. As a result, they have offended the candidate and invited censure from his supporters.
On the one hand, New Yorker readers are largely assumed to be highly educated, fairly liberal and appreciative of the Colbert-style sarcasm that the magazine was going for but on the other hand, it is a nationally circulated periodical that is displayed on grocery store racks in full view of the 12 percent who think Obama is Muslim (only 57% believe he is Christian).

Didn't David Remnick foresee this backlash? Did he hope that the Democrats would use this as an opportunity to emphasize how laughable the attacks on the Obama family's patriotism and background have been? Wouldn't that have been a better way to go for the Obama camp instead of contriving moral outrage and feigning incomprehension of irony or would it be too great of a political risk?

By Sarah Scully and William Rabbe

Every candidate makes mistakes every election cycle -- but in 2008, with the popularization of online video, they're more noticeable. The following is a list of the top 12 worst gaffes of 2008 (so far).

12. Lightning Strikes Rudy Giuliani

While Former Candidate Rudy Giuliani was explaining his pro-choice position on abortion, lightning strikes, disrupting the audio from his microphone. The lesson? Candidates should remember that God is always watching.

11. Barack Obama's Botches Tornado Death Toll Numbers

Barack Obama vastly over-stated the number of deaths resulting from tornados in Kansas, saying 10,000 people died. The reality: 12.

After having discussed Obama and Madonna last week, I now realize that maybe McCain and Madonna are closer than we think:

Sorry, this clip was too funny not to post.

Politics is, by nature, a game of smoke and mirrors. An entire industry has been created to manage image and control message yet the following documentaries offer up behind the scenes observations of the very machinery of elections, free of spin and full of fascinating insights.

1. PRIMARY (1960)

Robert Drew and a crew that included doc film legends Richard Leacock, Albert Maysles and D. A. Pennebaker set the precedent for political documentaries with this vérité look at the 1960 Democratic nomination battle between John F. Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. Drew focuses on the critically important Wisconsin primary. Leacock's camera follows close behind each candidate as they traverse the state shaking hands, kissing babies and connecting to voters with dramatically contrasting styles (and theme songs). "Primary" is an intimate account from inside the innermost sanctum of not one, but two presidential campaigns and a rare archive of the origins of the Kennedy mystique. After screening the film for Kennedy, Drew was invited to continue to document the presidency by placing cameras in the oval office.

2. THE WAR ROOM (1993)

D. A. Penebaker and Chris Hegedus take us inside Bill Clinton's first presidential campaign, turning the tactical game of political strategy into a spectator sport. The filmmakers cleverly resolve the problem of having limited access to the candidate by focusing on the dynamic duo of chief strategist James Carville and media director George Stephanopoulos. The hyperactive Carville and erudite Stephanopoulos are compelling and surprisingly candid as they eagerly toil at anticipating and responding to George Bush's every move. Carville provides the greatest amusement, bounding around in jeans and LSU baseball hat, shouting now-classic catchphrases like: "It's the economy, stupid," all the while pursuing a relationship with the enemy, GOP operative Mary Matalin (now his wife).

* Last notice prior to general election

But seriously, the last 2 days appear to have won the prize for "Most Quotable and/or Uncomfortable Moments Captured on Video in 2008" award.

By William Rabbe

Karl Rove's column today in the Wall Street journal might be his most insightful on strategy to date. He credits the Obama campaign for running a top-notch campaign (one that he says is modeled after the Bush-Cheney playbook -- maybe true) and points out something very important: that Obama reveals his cards too much.

For instance, the Obama team (as per my post on the "50 State Strategy") has stated that it wants to campaign in traditionally red states to force Candidate McCain to play defense. The idea is that McCain will have to waste money just to hold onto the electoral votes that were solidly for Bush in 00 and 04... how clever. And yes, reminiscent of Bush in 04 running strong in New Jersey.

But Master strategist Rove says, "Mr. Obama's people admit they want to sucker Mr. McCain into spending money. To be successful, a bluff must be credible."

So has Obama undermined the effectiveness of their tactic by advertising his strategy in advance? What would prevent McCain from saying in turn: "Senator Obama has said that the only reason he's campaigning in ____[insert red state here]____ is to, quote, 'make me waste money.' Now, if that's not disingeneous, I don't know what is!"?

Maybe the Obama team will hope (hope really really hard) that the McCain camp won't think to do this.

Or maybe it is a backwards reverse double bluff play, in which case the Obama team actually wants McCain's people to think that they really think that, and actually have something else up their sleeve. Stay tuned.

By Sarah Scully and William Rabbe

Nixon learned of the power of television the hard way in 1960 -- unshaven and sweaty in the debate against John Kennedy, he appeared flustered and less fit for the Presidency than the handsome and charming Kennedy. Since the 1950's television has been the medium of choice for political advertising -- and as history shows, a good TV spot can be the decisive factor in any election. The following are our top 10 Presidential campaign ads of all time, based on creativity and effectiveness:

10. George H. W. Bush's "Tank" Ad, 1988

An instant classic, this George H. W. Bush's spot portrayed opponent Michael Dukakis as as hopelessly out touch on national defense. It mocked him by juxtaposing a goofy video of him riding a tank smiling with a serious narration about national security. Did I mention Dukakis is wearing a helmet?

9. Richard Nixon's "Honorable End in Vietnam" Ad, 1968

Richard Nixon had a "secret plan" to get America out of Vietnam in 1968 -- "peace with honor" would go on to become his buzz-phase for his '68 campaign. This ad effectively tied his Democratic opponent to the unsuccessful war in Vietnam and marked his political comeback.

By Sarah Scully & William Rabbe

Politics makes for strange and sometimes scandalous bedfellows. What are power, fame and money without sex? What is a presidency without secret children, hush money or naughty interns? Presidential sex scandals go back as far as the Founding Fathers and we've put together a list of the most scandalous...

1. THOMAS JEFFERSON
During Thomas Jefferson's first term, rumors were flying -- and in fact, printed that he had fathered children by his slave, Sally Hemings. Evidence strongly suggests that it is true but DNA findings have been inconclusive. The matter is still a point of controversy as the nature of the relationship is debated amongst historians.

2. GROVER CLEVELAND
During Grover Cleveland's 1884 run for office it was discovered that he had paid child support to a shop clerk named Maria Halpin whom he had known as a young bachelor. His political rivals attacked with the taunt: "Ma, Ma, Where's my Pa?" Cleveland did not deny the story (though some accounts suggest he was covering for a married friend) and weathered the scandal. Upon winning the election, his opponents added the line: "Gone to the White House Ha Ha Ha!" His second year in office, Cleveland married his former partner's 21-year-old daughter. Frances Folsom became the youngest First Lady ever.

By Will Rabbe

The ad wars continue: "Don't hope for a better life -- vote for one" [emphasis added] is the message of John McCain's new TV spot:

As a very well edited piece, it is likely to be effective -- it combines elements of McCain's biography with a rebuttal of Barack Obama's message.

But it also equates the counterculture and the 1967 "Summer of Love" with Obama's campaign themes of "hope" and "change". Is it a problem is that at age 46, Obama was only 6 years old at the time?

McCain supporter NY Rep. Peter King called Obama a "performer" and compared him to Madonna today in a MSNBC interview with Andrea Mitchell, saying: "you could have Madonna if you wanted someone who can preform well."

If Obama could only dance like Madonna....

By Sarah Scully
It's summer, a time for you to wear flip flops to work and for candidates to move to the right or left in an effort to broaden their appeal to the general electorate. Depending on how deftly candidates make these adjustments, they risks being stuck with the poisonous "flip flopper" label. John Kerry's public utterance: "I voted for it before I voted against it" was both straightforward and chowder-headed as it gave rise to one of the greatest exploitations of the "flip flop" in decades with a legendary national ad campaign, giant flip flop costumes at the conventions and John Kerry branded rubber thongs that haunted him through the fall. As this elections looks like it will be decided by independents as well as party loyalists, it was a given that both McCain and Obama would realign their views. Of course, there is a less cynical way of looking at it by noting that the ability to reevaluate decisions and adapt to new information is a sign of intelligence. Whatever the motives, Obama has moved to the center on major policy issues, angering some of the liberal base that helped nominate him but appealing to undecided moderates and McCain has ever so carefully pulled to the right, assuring those who questioned his conservative credentials. The warring parties are trying desperately to get traction on the gimmicky attack line but it seems that flip flops are not as fashionable as they were back in 2004, with both candidates engaging in the traditional shift, they seem to be canceling each other out.

By William Rabbe

Happy Fourth of July! To make sure everyone has enough to talk about over BBQ this weekend, here's a look at some of the many wacky wacky things going on in the '08 election:

Obama's name has made its way into the Caribbean music scene. Several songs by artists have come out recently, including one called "Barack the Magnificent." Also, for anyone who missed it, Barack Obama-istable.

Fox News doctored photos of 2 New York Times reporters and is taking fire from HuffPo and MSNBC.

Did John McCain include a woman wearing an Obama T-Shirt in his new ad?

Obama breaks up with Scarlett Johansson. And courts Colin Powell....

Potential McCain VP, Gov. Charlie Crist, is getting married! Does this make him more or less likely to become Veep? Probably more. The last bachelor Vice President was in 1852.

Stephen Baldwin vows to leave the country if Obama wins the Presidency.

Much continues to be made of Obama's fist bump last month (NOT a terrorist fist jab) in light of a recent incident at an elementary school -- but, having done some research there's apparently nothing more American than the fist bump... Just in time for the 4th.

McCain and Jeb Bush have a vacation in Mexico?

And are flip-floppers now likeable?

One last thing: Fans and detractors of Christopher Hitchens will enjoy his water-boarding experience here. Note he is wearing loafers -- his preferred water-boarding getup?

And for those readers who are on Facebook -- join our new Facebook Page!

By WILL RABBE and SARAH SCULLY

Our list of the 10 most important presidential speeches in chronological order.

1. George Washington's Farewell Address, 1796
[Note: This speech was not actually read aloud but instead printed in the newspaper. You try speaking with wooden teeth] Washington was incredibly prescient in this address, discouraging overuse of credit, warning against debt as well as the distraction of partisanship. He also made an early case for term limits in explaining why he was stepping down. Click Here For Full Text

2. Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, 1863
One of the most influential speeches in modern history and yet also one of the shortest. Lincoln's powerful words comforted and gave purpose to a nation torn apart by war. He redefined the Declaration of Independence as the basis for equality and freedom. Given how little time it takes, I recommend re-reading it right now. Click Here For Full Text

3. Teddy Roosevelt's Minnesota State Fair Speech, 1901
Still a Vice President, mere days from taking over for an assassinated McKinley, Roosevelt gave a speech that hinted at the depth of historic knowledge and worldly experience that would serve him so well in office. It was in this speech that he first employed a proverb he picked up in his African travels that would come to define his policy on international relations: "Speak softly and carry a big stick." Click Here For Full Text

4. Woodrow Wilson's War Message to Congress, 1917
While not as celebrated as some of the others we've listed, Wilson's speech is remarkable for its sheer persuasiveness. In an effort to convince a largely isolationist Congress to declare war against Germany and its allies, Wilson delivered an emotionally charged argument, citing patriotic duty and humanitarian need that left few willing to vote against him. Click Here For Full Text

5. Franklin Delano Roosevelt's First Inaugural Address, 1933
Taking office in the middle of the Great Depression, Roosevelt outlined his plans for recovery in a rousing speech that declared: "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Click Here For Full Text

6. Richard Nixon's Checkers Speech, 1952
Following accusations of financial indiscretions and with the threat of being dropped from Eisenhower's ticket, Nixon went on TV to divulge all of his finances in detail directly to the American Public. And to top it off -- his laundry list of assets and liabilities even included his dog Checkers, hence the name of the speech. Click Here For Full Text and Video

7. Dwight Eisenhower's Farewell Address, 1961
The great Military leader-turned President surprised the country by warning of the "military-industrial complex -- or the rapid growth of the defense industry that was developing into a powerful interest group. Click Here For Full Text and Audio

8. John F. Kennedy's Inaugural Address, 1961
Short but sweet, this 13-minute speech contained a most memorable line: "Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country." The famous call to service inspired a new generation of American leaders. Click Here For Full Text. Click Here For Video

9. Lyndon Johnson's Message to Congress: "We Shall Overcome", 1965
LBJ adopted the language of the Civil Rights movement in this 1965 message to Congress to overcome "the crippling legacy of bigotry and injustice." His intent? To finish the job that Lincoln began. Unfortunately for Johnson's legacy, his breakthrough with Civil Rights would be overshadowed by his bungling of the Vietnam War. Click Here For Full Text

10. Ronald Reagan's "Evil Empire" Speech, 1983
Reagan escalated the rhetoric of the Cold War by referring to the Soviet Union as the "evil empire" -- stark terms following a relaxation of relations between the US and Russia. Three years later he would sit down with Mikhail Gorbachev in Iceland -- beginning the end of the Cold War. Click Here For Full Text

< — Back to day 1 -- Six Killer Movie Plants.

For the past month, rumors have been circulating that those hoping to reprise the hazy glory of 1968 will have to contend with a new, high tech gun that causes possible loss of bodily function control by emitting an infrasound microwave frequency. New and old media alike have been buzzing with reports ranging from the mysterious: "Activists Preparing For Use of Brown Note," to the indelicate: "DNC Protestors Fear Crap Cannon." Though Mayor John Hickenlooper's refusal to deny or confirm the story is likely in the service of discouraging potential agitators, it has instead galvanized them. Recreate 68's founders Glenn Spagnuolo and Mark Cohen have been using the issue to promote their organization, citing it as yet another reason to protest and offering medical care on site. A little background research reveals that all the panic (and adult diapers) may be for naught- a Princeton study found "scant" evidence of the weapon's purported effects and The Mythbusters (those fellows who explain the nucleation of Mentos and Diet Coke) seem to have debunked it with their own test back in 2005. As the "brown note" looks to be about as effective as the military's famous "gay bomb," protesters will face the more tangible problem of chain links and chicken wire.