Time is on McCain's Side

Thursday, April 3, 2008 | 11:31 AM

By William Rabbe

Many people have asked me whether or not a prolonged battle for the Democratic nomination will benefit the eventual nominee. Strategically, the idea is that a "battle-tested" candidate will emerge from the fray -- one with established campaign credentials, ready to engage in hand to hand combat with the Republican nominee . It makes sense, right? If a candidate can take down one strong opponent, he or she should be able to take down another...

Well, not exactly -- devising strategy takes time. The more time that is taken to settle the nomination the less time the Democratic nominee have to focus on the general election to tailor their message to their next opponent. Winning a general election is a careful game of chess, you can't rely solely on the electorate's desire for a sea-change in the wake of an unpopular president.

Historically the incumbent, or the candidate who has wrapped up the nomination first, has had an advantage, for instance George Bush had already devised his ad campaign by the end of 2003 (though he planned it against Howard Dean, assuming he would win the nomination). Similarly, John McCain has the luxury of time.

Yes, Barack Obama is sharpening his teeth. As Maureen Dowd wrote yesterday, Hillary is teaching Barack Obama that the "whole point of a Presidential Race is to win." But Barack Obama knew that Hillary Clinton would be his chief rival for years and thus was able to develop and run a consistent campaign that trumped hers: he positioned himself as an outsider ready to bring about change and defined her as a part of the Washington establishment, someone who embodies the idea of "old politics".

While he can still effectively paint McCain with the same brush, Senator Obama has not yet revealed a more focused long term strategy. At this point, his efforts have been centered exclusively on linking the senator to the current president -- having coined the phrase "Bush McCain Republican" and always referring to the two together. The object of this approach is obviously to hold McCain responsible for the failures of the Bush administration and to bound an unpopular president to the current nominee. You already hear people on the left buzzing about a potential McCain administration as "Bush's third term."

But we learned in 2004 that you can't win an election solely by demonizing Bush -- doing so not only comes across as an over-simplification of the stakes, but in 2008 the tactic contains an inherent contradiction: the Republican nominee appears to be his own man, not Bush 2.0 -- and there's plenty of evidence he can use to back that up.

After all, isn't John McCain known as a maverick senator who is unafraid of challenging his own party? Didn't he run against Bush and butt heads for some time thereafter? Didn't he consider leaving the Republican party when he felt it had strayed? Somehow this does not sound like another Bush.

So, will the "same as Bush" approach hold water? Can Obama afford to rely on latent dissatisfaction with the current administration? His strategists will have to pull a few all-nighters to cram for the general election.

By William Rabbe | Link | 1 Comments | Recommended (7)

Tags: Campaign Strategy, McCain, Obama