ELECTION DAY: What to Watch

By William Rabbe on 11/03/2008

By Will Rabbe

After two years of non-stop campaigning, a remarkable field of candidates and a fierce battle in the home stretch, we're on the eve of election day. While Barack Obama leads in all the national polls and in most battleground polls, it isn't over until one of the candidates reaches the magic number of electoral votes: 270. Here's a summary of what to watch for as the results begin to come in:

Indiana: While it's a mid-west state, its polls close early so we should see the results report at 6PM (EST), before many of the eastern states. A traditional red state, Indiana has been extremely close and may be the first indicator of how election night will play out. While an Obama win will likely mean big victory nationwide, if Obama is blown out it may indicate a late McCain surge. Same rule applies for Missouri (but it doesn't report until 8). But since a narrow McCain win won't change the game either way, we should also be looking at the big electoral states of Ohio and Florida early on in the evening.

Ohio and Florida: Polls have shown a dead heat. McCain needs these states to remain competitive, since a win for Obama in either will likely guarantee victory for the Obama camp. If Obama loses narrowly, he will need to hold onto Pennsylvania and win Virginia. Florida reports at 7PM, Ohio at 7:30.

Pennsylvania: While Obama has led against McCain in this state since last April, the McCain campaign is putting down the chips -- Mark Salter and McCain's strategists see PA as the gateway to 270 and the Senator has kept his schedule full of events in the state. So, what do they know that we don't? Well, they tell us that their internal polling shows a closer race than many thought. In fact, Pennsylvania might be particularly difficult to poll, remember, Obama was only down 5 points before he was blown out by Clinton by a margin of 10.

If McCain is, in fact, competitive in PA, we may have a longer night than expected and Obama would have to make up the electoral loss by winning either Ohio or Florida, or 3 of the 3 western states of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada in addition to... Virginia, which is seen as an Obama stronghold.

Virginia: Obama has maintained a clear lead in this state for weeks, even above the margin of error in many polls. Once a solid Red state, it hasn't voted for a Democratic President since LBJ in 1964. In 2004 John Kerry pulled his campaign out in August, but this year Barack Obama never counted VA out and his efforts in the state have paid off -- most pundits have marked the state as a sure bet for Obama. Watch Obama run up the numbers in this new blue state. While McCain is unlikely to win, if McCain's turnout is larger than expected and Obama's margin is diminished, it may indicate a surprise turn in the electorate. If Obama loses PA, he will need this state and three of the western states to win. Virginia results will come in with Florida -- at 7PM.

Western Toss-Ups: New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada are Barack Obama's firewall. If he loses PA or VA in the east, the entire focus of the election will turn to these three states as he will have to make up the numbers.

Take a look at the electoral vote calculator to see the possible outcomes. Predictions?