New Mexico: Snapshot of a Swing State

By Sarah Scully on 10/27/2008

By Sarah Scully
Albuquerque, NM

John McCain and Barack Obama both spent their Saturday in New Mexico. The state that went blue in 2000 and red in 2004 has become one of the key battlegrounds in the final days before the election. With the Obama campaign encroaching on old Bush territories, including Nevada, Colorado and most notably, Virginia, they now have several potential routes for winning the magic number of 270 electoral votes. McCain has fewer options at this point, as states once considered safe for the GOP are slipping away. The McCain campaign, much like Hillary Clinton's, seems to have underestimated Obama's offensive ground game and is now scrambling to make up for it.

Amid rumors that his resources have become increasingly stretched, McCain showed up in New Mexico with a mission to reconnect with Latino voters and make clear that he had not given up on the state. McCain's morning rally in Albuquerque turned out about 1,500 supporters, which would have been impressive, had there not been an Obama rally later that night that attracted an estimated 45,000 people. As McCain moved southward, speaking to his credentials as a fellow westerner and mocking Obama for his presumptuousness; hordes of Obama volunteers canvassed the state getting early voters to the polls before gathering at the University of New Mexico to line up for a chance to see their candidate.

Everyone we encountered in that line had voted early, some waiting two hours to do so. Many had spent the afternoon going door to door. While McCain seldom mentioned early voting at his events, both Obama and Governor Bill Richardson (who introduced him) implored the audience to get to the polls as soon as possible, championing their power to swing the election.

Though Obama looked a little worn out as he took to the stage, he spoke energetically, even aggressively at times, such as when he suggested McCain was the Robin to Bush's Batman. The audience frequently erupted into deafening chants and blue and white signs could be seen waving in the air for miles.

His message has been so successfully telegraphed throughout the election that it almost wouldn't have mattered if he had simply stood there reading the Albuquerque phone book. Most attendees were too far back to hear what he was saying anyway.

The GOP continues to attack Obama for the grandiosity of his events and it is worth noting that crowds do not always translate into votes but it is hard to argue that the enthusiasm generated from his rallies is a key ingredient in his success. Still, McCain has an uncanny ability to come from behind and almost requires it in order to build velocity. While this worked for him in the primaries, he may not have enough of a runway left in the general election.