Slim Margins

By William Rabbe on 09/10/2008

By William Rabbe

To the many who are wondering why Barack Obama isn't doing as well as he "should be" at this point in the election, consider this: no democrat since LBJ has won the presidency decisively when seeking a first term.

What about Jimmy Carter in 1976?

Well, despite Watergate, an uninspiring (and unelected) President and a 33-point lead at labor day, Carter barely eked out his victory. He only won by 2% in the popular vote and the electoral count was anything but a clear mandate.

But what about Bill Clinton? He certainly trounced George Bush in '92!

Not exactly. Remember Ross Perot? The effect of Perot's Reform Party candidacy was significant, winning 19% of the popular vote and large margins of swing states that would have gone to Bush had he not been in competition. In fact, if George Bush had received less than half of the total Perot vote in just a few states (including: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire and, yes, Ohio) he would have won handily.

Obviously the effect of a third party is not necessary to ensure victory for the dems, but the task is not to be underestimated -- even during times of republican failure.